Note: The following piece was prepared by Dean Keener, who provides commentary on Southern Conference men’s basketball broadcasts.
Keener played collegiately at Davidson before embarking on a successful 20-year coaching career. He served as head coach at James Madison from 2004-08. You can follow him on twitter: @DeanKeener1
The Dean’s List
January 6, 2016
I. Inside the SoCon
The calendar has quickly turned to 2016 and thus conference play is in full swing. For all Southern Conference basketball fans, remember that for the second consecutive season each team will play a full round-robin (18-game) league schedule. And they need to keep in mind this is a marathon, not a sprint and can take several twists and turns over the course of the next two months. There is no need to fear if your school is a few games behind in the standings in the early going. Similarly, don’t get too high if your team has jumped to the top. Injuries, suspensions, and many other variables can help or hurt teams during the grind of conference play in January and February.
What has been a pleasant surprise for me is how competitive the league has been even with all the coaching changes. Many times it can take a couple of years for a new coach and his staff to get the current players to buy into a new system as well as recruit his own student-athletes. But all of the programs with new coaches have seen some level of early success and each will have an impact on the league race.
All said, I think we are in for one of the most exciting conference seasons in a very long time. There are two or three teams that may have more talent than the rest, but again conference play brings out the best in everyone as well as a competitiveness than can and will cause upsets and crazy things to happen. Buckle up for a fun, yet no doubt wild ride!
II. Turning Around A Program
How many times have you heard fans say, “We want to be the Gonzaga of the East?” or “Boy, I hope we can be the next Butler?” While there are over 350 Division I men’s basketball programs, it is a very small percentage (less than 5 percent) that have turned around a program in recent years AND had sustained success over several seasons.
VCU, Murray State and Wichita State have had huge success in recent times, but those programs have a long history of excellence. VCU went to the NCAA tournament five times (in six seasons) in the 1980’s under JD Barnett and then advanced to the big dance under Sonny Smith in 1996. Later, under the direction of Jeff Capel and Anthony Grant they went multiple times before Shaka Smart took them to the Final Four in 2011. Murray State has not had a losing season since 1987 and counts Mark Gottfried (currently at NC State), Mick Cronin (Cincinnati), Billy Kennedy (Texas A&M) and Steve Prohm (Iowa State) as coaches who have passed through Murray, Ky., and won big. And while Wichita State is an astounding 102-19 during the past three seasons under Gregg Marshall, they have had a history of success for many years. In fact, Eddie Fogler had a good run in the late 1980’s and Marshall took over for Mark Turgeon who is currently the head guy at Maryland.
Harvard is really one of the few schools with almost no tradition that has been able to turn the fortunes around and then sustain that level of excellence over multiple seasons. What Tommy Amaker has done in Cambridge, Mass., is nothing short of amazing. The Crimson had not been to the NCAA tournament since 1946, but Amaker has led them to four straight tournaments, including upset tournament wins in 2013 and again in 2014.
So why is it so difficult to turn around the fortunes of a Division I men’s basketball program? I’m not sure there is any one element that you can look at, but certainly there are some areas that must be in place.
First, there has to be a commitment by the administration. From the President through the Director of Athletics and his/her staff, there must be a commitment to excellence. Everyone needs to be on the same page. Second, the head coach needs to be a fit. By that I mean he needs to understand – and embrace – everything about the institution. He must understand the culture, the admissions process as well as the history of the program. The head coach also needs a solid staff. This cannot be understated as one person cannot lead and direct a program.
Fourth, recruiting is critical. This is obvious for any program, yet finding and evaluating the right players is the key. The student-athletes must fit into the system as well as the school. And it helps if the players have upside – this is where good assistants come in to play. If they can really learn about the player (his background, work ethic, habits, etc.), a staff can get a bit lucky (e.g. Stephen Curry – no one knew he was going to be THIS good).
Fifth, it helps if a coach can have all these things during a time when the conference they play in is down just a bit. This allows him to build things much quicker. Finally, luck plays a part. While you can’t count on luck in any job, having things “go your way” and “falling in place at the right time” helps to putt a basketball program on the right track.
While there is no magic formula, it’s amazing that only a few programs really win big at the “mid major” level and then sustain success over an extended period of time.
III. Young Guns
We’re two months into the season and we are already seeing that there is a lot of good, young talent in the Southern Conference. I like this group as well as any in recent memory. Here are a few of the young guns to watch:
• Francis Alonso (UNCG)
o One of the leading freshman scorers in the Southern Conference can score from anywhere, but is a gifted long-range shooter
• Fletcher Magee (Wofford)
o Possibly the best young marksman in the Southern Conference. He currently leads the league in scoring for freshemen at 10.9 ppg and free throw percentage at 97 percent!
• Elijah Pughsley (Western Carolina)
o A key reserve for the Catamounts. He is learning from two really good guards in seniors Mike Brown and Rhett Harrleson and that should pay big dividends down the road
• Matt Rafferty (Furman)
o Rafferty is a rising star for Niko Medved and the Paladins. The second leading rebounder in the Southern Conference is also a fine shooter
• Matt Rose (Samford)
o Currently shooting 45 percent from behind the arc, he simply knows how to put the ball in the basket from long range for Scott Padgett and the Samford Bulldogs
• Ethan Stair (Mercer)
o Stair has provided solid minutes off the bench for the Bears. He is a solid offensive player who has a real knack for rebounding
• Wyatt Walker (Samford)
o Like Rose, the big fella is one of the cornerstones of Scott Padgett’s program. He is a terrific passer and as he continues to get stronger, he will be hard to guard in the low post
• Quayson Williams (The Citadel)
o The freshman from Greensboro has hit a bit of a cold shooting spell, but rest assure that he is perfect in Duggar Baucom’s system
IV. The SoCon Ladder
We have completed the non-conference slate and are into conference play, so it’s time for the first SoCon Ladder of the season. No doubt it’s going to be a very competitive race this season, so it will take some time for the middle of the pack to play itself out. With that said…..
1. Chattanooga – Matt McCall’s group flexed their muscle against Mercer on Tuesday with a hard fought 74-62 win. Even without leading scorer Casey Jones, the Mocs are still really hard to guard. They have great balance with seven players averaging between 7.0 and 10.7 points per game. Equally important, Justin Tuoyo continues to control the backline of the defense leading the league in blocked shots
2. Mercer - The Bears successfully navigated their way through a difficult non-conference schedule and then took care of business against Samford in their conference opener. While they lost at Chattanooga, the Bears will be just fine. If you don’t know by now, Bob Hoffman has built a program that will sustain excellence over time
3. ETSU – The Bucs went to Cullowhee and handed Western Carolina their first home loss of the season last Saturday (Jan. 2). Not many teams go to the Ramsey Center and win impressively. They then went to North Carolina Central and won. For that reason, I’m guessing they have gained a ton of confidence
4. Wofford – While the Terriers struggled through a difficult non-conference schedule, it would be unwise to count them out in league play. The question is who will step up and be “the guy” that wants to take the critical shot in a close game?
5. Samford – Without question the surprise team in the Southern Conference. Scott Padgett and staff have recruited well and infused a belief in the program that they can and will win big games. Now they need to do it in league play. Limiting The Citadel to “just 74 points” in their win on Tuesday is a nice start
6. Furman – I like this team and believe the Paladins will continue to improve as we get deep into conference play, yet their next three games will show us a lot with Chattanooga visiting Saturday, Samford on Monday, then a trip to Mercer!
7. Western Carolina – Never count out a Larry Hunter-coached team. That said, this group needs to needs to take care of business with two more home games (VMI and UNCG) before they hit the road
8. UNCG – The schedule has not been kind to the Spartans since December 1. Thankfully, that turns as we have entered league play and they get some much needed home games in the Greensboro Coliseum. Beating Furman in come-from-behind fashion might be just what the doctor ordered!
9. The Citadel – The Bulldogs are playing fast just as everyone expected. No doubt, they will be a very tough out for every league opponent
10. VMI – Dan Earl and staff have the Keydets playing hard, but this team’s margin for error is razor thin. I still believe they will pull off some wins, especially within the cozy confines of Cameron Hall
Follow me throughout the year on twitter: @DeanKeener1