Inside SoCon Basketball:  Pre-season power rankings

& Five questions that need to be answered

This is the second of a three-part series previewing Southern Conference Men’s Basketball

I love this time of year in college basketball.  It’s a time when coaches get to do a ton of coaching, players are competing for a spot in the rotation and fans everywhere have belief that their team will compete for a championship.  Even though Wofford is the consensus favorite, I truly believe there are several programs that have a legitimate shot to win the league title.  Chattanooga is looking to build on last year’s run, UNCG has talent and the three newcomers (ETSU, Mercer and VMI) have to feel as though they can make some serious noise.  And don’t ever forget Western Carolina as long as Larry Hunter is at the controls.

In this edition of The Dean’s List, we will provide you with the pre-season power rankings which will no doubt cause some discussion among SoCon fans.  There are also five questions that need to be answered as we enter the new season.  Fans across the SoCon should buckle up for what should be a wild ride that ends in Asheville on March 10.

While this year is especially difficult to handicap because of the changes in membership, here’s my take on each program in the Southern Conference as we begin the 2014-2015 season:

Pre-Season Power Rankings

1)      Wofford

 Regardless of how you define success; longevity, graduating players or winning, Mike Young fits the bill.  Coach Young is now the elder statesman in the Southern Conference having been the head coach at Wofford for 13 seasons.  He also presides over the dominate team in the league the past five years as his Terriers have represented the league three times during March Madness.  This year, they have a chance to continue in their winning ways with a very talented group.

Simply put, the Terriers are loaded with talent and confidence.  Senior Karl Cochran leads the way and enters the season as a Player-of–the-Year candidate.  The 6’3” guard found his groove midway through last year learning to play the right way.  Credit Cochran and the Wofford staff for finding some common ground and eliminating those frustrating moments when he launched jumpers from anywhere at any time.  Stats bear out the improvement:  Cochran shot just 38 percent from the field through the first half (17 games) of last season with 43 assists and 36 turnovers.  During the second half (16 games), he shot 44 percent with 57 assists and just 28 turnovers.

Lee Skinner averaged 11.1 points and 8.6 rebounds last year, but it’s the intangibles that make him so valuable - he talks on defense, is a great leader and does all the dirty work inside.  Helping him in the post will be juniors C.J. Neumann and Justin Gordon along with newcomer Cameron Jackson, the Virginia 4A player of the year.

Spencer Collins’ talent should be celebrated more throughout the league, but with Karl Cochran and Lee Skinner, his value is sometimes under appreciated.  The junior swingman was the only player to start all 32 games a year ago while finishing second on the team in scoring at 12.4 per game.

Sophomores Eric Garcia and Jaylen Allen figure to be integral parts as well.  Garcia is a gifted shooter and Allen is one of the top young players in the league.  Look for both to play major minutes. 

While the Terriers will be the hunted and get everyone’s best shot, rest assured that Mike Young and staff will make sure everyone gets the Terriers best shot as well!  This team has all the ingredients for success and will be fun to watch.

2)      Chattanooga

Will Wade is building something special in Chattanooga.  You can just feel it.  Actually, you can see it.  Coming off 12 wins in conference play, the Mocs have lots of good, young talent.  Losing all-everything forward Z Mason hurts, but they may actually be better in Wade’s second season.

Casey Jones is a rising star after averaging over 12 points and 6 rebounds per game last season.  More impressive, he shot 53.5 percent from the field.  He will have help on the perimeter from sophomore Greg Pryor, who should man the point.  Pryor struggled shooting the ball last year, but has worked his way into better shape and word is that his shot has improved as well.  Shooting is not a problem for Ronrico White, Martynas Bareika, Eric Robertson and Alex Bran who combined for 142 triples last season!  Queens University of Charlotte (Division II) transfer Tre’ McLean will also find himself in the rotation due to his ability to rebound and score.

Upfront, the Mocs have four really good post players, although game experience will be a concern.  Justin Tuoyo is a long, athletic forward.  The 6’10” native of Fayetteville, Georgia played one season at VCU before following Will Wade to UTC and should be the perfect person to protect the rim as a last line of defense in the Mocs press.  Junior college transfers Chuck Ester and Duke Ethridge are also perfect for Wade’s pressing system.  Senior Lance Stokes is the most experienced of the group as he has seen time at the small forward, power forward and even center over his three seasons starting 32 career games.

This is a dangerous team that has a chance to be right there at the end come tournament time in March.  Developing depth and gaining confidence during a difficult non-conference slate will be key for the Mocs.

3)      East Tennessee State

After a 10 year absence from the SoCon, the Bucs should make their presence known right away.  They have some serious talent, especially on the perimeter.  Rashawn Rembert, Jalen Riley and Lester Wilson were all double figure scorers a year ago and return ready for the SoCon.  Rembert made a 108 threes last year while shooting 42.5 percent from behind the arc and must be considered a Player-of-the-Year candidate.   Riley is a combo guard who is also a quality 3-point shooter and can score the ball.  He finished second on the team in scoring at 13.4 per game and was considered the best sixth-man in the Atlantic Sun last year.  In fact, he was named the A-Sun Newcomer of the Year after transferring from Sauk Valley (IL) Community College.  Wilson is a high level athlete that is a tough match up.  Petey McClain has a ton of starts at the point and is a terrific distributor.  Junior A.J. Merriweather should also find his way into the rotation because of his versatility on the perimeter.  At 6’2”, he is an outstanding rebounder.  He led the Bucs last year with 6.3 per game.  Finally, freshman Desonta Bradford was the Tennessee Class A Mr. Basketball and will find time in a crowded perimeter.  He has a chance to be really good.

The Bucs did lose their starters up front (Hunter Harris and Kinard Gadsden-Gilliard).  The true unknown of this team lies in its post play, but the staff is excited about 5^th year transfer Alex Bates and senior Ron Giplaye.  Each has the ability to score in the low post and defend.  Bates is a true center and will be a big key because of his experience and ability to defend and rebound.  Giplaye is an interesting story as he had open heart surgery last year and has come back healthy and ready for his senior year.  Junior college transfer Tommy Williams is listed at 6’5”, but is known for his competitive nature and should also help.

ETSU will play all of its home games in Freedom Hall, a Johnson City Civic Center.  The Bucs have great fans and playing in a more intimate venue (as opposed to the Dome) should provide a real home court advantage.  Last year, the Bucs were 3-0 when playing there.  Most impressive is the fact they beat Samford, Marshall and were the last team to beat Stephen F. Austin before they went on a 29-game win streak which ended in a loss to UCLA in the NCAA round of 32. 

If the Bucs can get solid post play and rebound better than last year, they should have a lot of fun back in the SoCon.

4)      UNCG

The Spartans have talent, but do they have enough to make waves come league play?  Wes Miller believes they do and is excited about the season.  One of the best things is they have a more balanced schedule.  Sure, the Spartans will play UNC in the Greensboro Coliseum and at Indiana along with local rivals High Point and Elon, but thankfully, they have a chance to gain (not lose) confidence during the non-conference portion of their schedule.  Coach Miller wants to challenge his team, but he also knows that this program needs to see success.

On the court, sophomore Tevon Saddler is one of the most talented players in the league.  If he can cut down on his turnovers and become a more consistent outside shooter, he is an All-SoCon candidate.  Junior Kayel Locke is a strong lefty that knows how to gain position on the block and get to the free throw line.  He simply needs to cut down on his fouling – he has fouled out in 10 of his 63 career games at UNCG.  Nicholas Paulos is a 3-point specialist and is expected to take on more of a leadership role in his senior season.  Sophomore Diante Baldwin may be the hardest working player on the Spartans roster and will see plenty of minutes at both guard positions.  Up front, redshirt sophomore RJ White is 6’8” 280 and could team with Locke to form one of the best frontcourts in the league.  He averaged 6.5 points and 5.3 rebounds off the bench last season, but is being counted on to hold down the center position with the loss of Kyle Cain. 

The newcomer to watch is 6’8” Ben Dickinson who joined the program this summer and was awarded a waiver for immediate eligibility, which is huge (no pun intended) for the Spartans.  Dickinson was an American East Conference All-Rookie team selection at Binghamton University where he average 13.5 points and 6.1 rebounds two years ago  before transferring to Loyola Marymount.  After sitting out the 2012-2013 season, he played last year for the Lions and averaged 8.5 points.  He is a skilled offensive player and will add quality depth to the frontcourt.

The Spartans finally have some experience across the roster and while losing Cain hurts, I think they will still have one of the top frontcourts in the league.  They just need to make sure they use it to their advantage.  If they do and if they can cut down on turnovers, they have a chance to be a top team in the Southern Conference this season.  I predict this will be a very dangerous team by the time mid-January hits.

5)      Western Carolina

Larry Hunter almost pulled off a miracle in Asheville after upsetting Davidson in the semifinals, but the Catamounts fell short losing to Wofford in the championship game 56-53.  

The Catamounts lost as much firepower as anyone in the league.  Many will say they missed their window of opportunity, but I believe there is enough talent on the roster to be in the hunt again.  James Sinclair should become a 1,000 point scorer by mid-season and will be the “go-to” player.  He has started 62 career games and has played in two Southern Conference tournament championship games.  Kenneth Hall started 27 games last year and is a one of the best defenders in the league.  He is the leading returning shot blocker in the SoCon.

While Sinclair and Hall should be anchors for Coach Hunter, the key to their season may well rest with the junior class.  Mike Brown, Rhett Harrelson, Torrion Brummitt and Justin Browning all need to show improvement.  Brown has a chance to be solid in the back court.  Harrleson is known as a specialist.  Who could forget his career game against Elon in the SoCon tournament hitting two huge 3-pointers to lift the Catamounts to victory?  Brummitt has lost weight and is moving better.  No doubt, he has the ability to replace the graduated Tawaski King at center.  Browning can be a match up problem with his ability to slash to the basket.

Finally, it’s important to remember the Catamounts are always a tough out at home.  Their record at the Ramsey Center under Hunter is impressive.  Overall, Western Carolina is a sterling 86-32 (.728) at home in nine seasons with Hunter in charge.

While Sinclair should lead the way, a score-by-committee mentality may be necessary this season for the Catamounts to be really good.  In addition, they need to defend well.  With Hunter at the wheel, I’m thinking these issues won’t be a problem.

6)      VMI

The high-scoring Keydets will bring lots of excitement to the SoCon.  Duggar Baucom’s teams annually rank in the top 5 in scoring.  Last season, they lead the country averaging 88.3 points per game.

Gone are talented big man D.J. Covington and guard Rodney Glasgow, but the Keydets return some good talent in guard QJ Peterson, Jordan Weethee and Brian Brown.  Peterson averaged 19 points during his first campaign in Lexington in route to being named to the All-freshman team in the Big South.  He is a scoring machine.  Weethee is a big, strong forward but plays primarily on the perimeter and can knock down 3’s.  Brown has played in 86 career games and is also a terrific shooter.  He is a one of the team leaders and may be the Keydets best defender on the perimeter.

Philip Anglade is a returning starter up front and should see his role grow this year.  He plays with a nice level of toughness and is a very good rebounder.  Trey Chapman is a 6’6” sophomore that was solid in his first year and will also be counted on to help in the post.

The gem of the recruiting class is Jon Elmore.  He is the son of Gay Elmore, a former Keydet great in the 80’s, who was once the all-time leading scorer in VMI history.  Elmore, like his father, is also known as a scorer and should team with Peterson to form one of the best young backcourts in the league.  Baucom’s style of play fits the young Elmore to perfection.   His brother, Ot, is also at VMI and redshirted last season so they could play together.

It can’t be overstated that the pace at which VMI plays is unlike any other in college basketball.  For that, the Keydets will win some games they shouldn’t.  For SoCon fans, it will be fun to watch, but for coaches it will be a nightmare preparing for a team that averages almost 90 points and 28 3-point attempts per game.

7)      Mercer

I will regret this pick come March.  Bob Hoffman is an outstanding coach and even with eight new players, Hoffman will get the most out of this team.  The Bears were the only program in the country last season to start five seniors every game, thus there will be a lot of new faces, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be successful.  Make no mistake; the Bears will be a factor in the Southern Conference.

Ike Nwamu will play a big role this season.  He was the sixth-man a year ago and is the Bears leading returning scorer at 8.3 ppg.  He is a high level athlete and will play either wing position.  Jibri Bryan should log a ton of minutes at the other wing spot.  He may well be the Bears best defender, but is also a solid 3-point shooter.  The point guard position is a bit more up in the air and cause for some concern.  Junior Phillip Leonard, junior college transfer Jestin Lewis and freshman walk-on Jordan Strawberry will all have a chance to man the position.  Finding solid point guard play will be vital to the Bears success.

Red-shirt senior Darious Moten should be the power forward.  The former walk-on earned a scholarship this season through hard work and is a skilled offensive player.  Senior T.J. Hallice has played in 110 career games, although never in a starting role, and should play a ton at center.  He is a career 51.4 percent field goal shooter and seems ready to step into a prime time role.  Andrew Fishler is a 7’1” transfer from Gulf Coast State (Fla.) College and is a shot blocker who could cause big problems for SoCon opponents.

For those that haven’t followed this program, keep in mind they also have a terrific home court atmosphere.  They are 47-5 in Hawkins Arena during the past three seasons, including 17-1 last year.  Equally impressive, the Bears are 9-1 against current SoCon teams during that same period.

Certainly, Mercer lost a very special group of players.  It will be interesting to watch how Hoffman and his staff mold this team over the course of the season.  The non-conference part of the season will be critical as they blend newcomers and returning players who have not had to be the “go-to guy.”  Finding a way to win with the best rotation will be a challenge for Hoffman, but I’m sure he’s up to it.

8)      Furman

Niko Medved had one of the youngest - and thinnest - rosters in America last season.  That should improve this year.   Medved returns three starters from last season’s squad, including point guard Stephen Croone, guard Larry Wideman and forward Kendrec Ferrara.  Croone, a junior from Covington, Georgia, was an All-SoCon pick last season and ranks as the league’s leading returning scorer at 19.1 points per game.  He is cat-quick and can get baseline to baseline as fast as anyone in the league, but he wore down at times last year because he was asked to do so much.  

Wideman and William Gates, Jr. can both score by the jump shot or slashing to the rim.  They are tough matchups and add athleticism to the Paladin roster.  They will certainly help Croone in the backcourt.  

Kendrec Ferrara looks like he is ready for a breakout season.  The 6’9” junior has lost weight, but is stronger.  This should allow him to battle in the low post with more effectiveness.  The unknown in the post is Kris Acox.  The 6’6” sophomore from Iceland played in just 16 games last year due to a broken foot.  Without a doubt, he is the Paladins best offensive rebounder.  He is healthy and can be a real force at the power forward position. 

Medved likes his recruiting class and feels all four freshmen are likely to see time.  Daniel Fowler is a 6’4” guard from Allatoona High School in Acworth, Georgia and is a do-everything wing.  Devin Sibley, a 6’2” guard from Knoxville, Tennessee led the state in scoring last year at 25.7 ppg.  John Davis III and Geoff Beans are both from Ohio and should help as well. 

Medved is excited about his second season at the helm and with good reason.  I actually believe they are better than an eighth-place team, but until they prove they can win the close games they will be slotted here.

9)      The Citadel

One step forward, two steps back.  That’s been the story of The Citadel Bulldogs the past few years.  Chuck Driesell and staff have worked diligently to bring in talent to the Military College of South Carolina, but injuries, defections and an honor code violation have held them back.  That said, there is excitement in the program having won their last three games before falling to Wofford in the quarterfinals of the SoCon tournament last season.  Across the board, not one Bulldog has missed a practice due to injury since the end of last season and the players have thus improved their basketball skills as well as their bodies.

The backcourt of Marshall Harris III and Ashton Moore could be one of the best in the league.  Harris is a pass-first point guard and Moore was playing as well as anyone in the league in February and March.  In fact, in league play Moore averaged over 16 ppg while shooting 46.2 percent from three.  Warren Sledge will provide depth in the backcourt.  Quinton Marshall should be the small forward after logging valuable minutes a year ago, making 14 starts.  He is the kind of athlete that can affect a game in many different ways.

Sophomore Brian White is coming off a stellar first year where he was named to the All-freshman team.  White needs to continue making improvement and not have a sophomore slump for the Bulldogs to be successful.  Senior P.J. Horgan is healthy and looks ready to have a solid final season.  C.J. Bray is also healthy and in the best condition of his life.  While he will never be considered the best athlete on the team, he is moving well and can be a factor inside with his size.  Finally, Tom Koopman started for the Netherlands this summer in the U20 FIBA World Championships.  This international experience can only help him as he enters his sophomore season.

As for the newcomers, freshmen Jake Wright is one to watch.  The small forward from Minnesota will have to learn the speed of the college game, but he is an outstanding shooter and will help the Bulldogs this season.

Make no mistake, the Bulldogs have to prove they belong, but I like their chances this season.  If they can stay healthy – and take care of the details - they will be a tough out for everyone in the league, especially at McAlister Field House.

10)  Samford

What could have been?  The Bulldogs were stockpiling talent the past two years, but never seemed quite right.  Following a mass exodus this spring Scott Padgett is tasked with rebuilding the Bulldogs. 

This is Padgett’s first head coaching gig, but he has the pedigree to be successful right from the start.  He will have seven newcomers, but in essence all 14 players on the roster are learning a new system of play so it will take time.  Padgett wants to run and press and play fast much like the style he played during his collegiate days at Kentucky.

Senior Tyler Hood is the leading returning scorer and will be counted on for leadership and a steady voice in the locker room.  Fellow senior Michael Bradley may be the biggest key to the Bulldogs success.  The 6’10” center finished last season in fine fashion averaging 10.5 points and 6.8 rebounds during the final four games.  He has been injury-prone throughout his career but looks to be healthy and hungry.  Sophomore Nnamdi Enechionyia should see time at the small forward position.  He is long and athletic and has the ability to make shots.  Senior Brandon Hayman and sophomore Brandon Roberts need to be glue guys because of their experience. 

As for the newcomers, all seven could help.  In particular, 6’1” guard Darius Jones-Gibson is an explosive athlete.  The junior college transfer, by way of Barton County CC, will be perfect in their pressing system.   Freshman Gerald Smith and Christen Cunningham have looked impressive in the pre-season.

The Bulldogs should be fun to watch this year and will certainly make progress as the season goes along, but they might not necessarily see it in the win column.  For Padgett, the first order of business is to teach his style of play, then get the team to play hard and create a “team environment.”  The wins will follow.

 

Five Questions That Need To Be Answered

1.      Can Wofford withstand the pressure?

Nothing in this league is ever a given, especially in a year where there seems to be a decent amount of competitive depth, but Wofford appears to be a cut above anyone else in the conference.  It won’t be as easy for the Terriers this year as they will be the hunted, but they’re still one of my favorites to reach the Southern Conference tournament finals in March.  The combination of talent, chemistry, ability to defend and coaching is simply too much to bet against as we enter the season.  And don’t worry if the Terriers enter conference play with a .500 record as Mike Young has put together another difficult non-conference slate which includes Stanford, Iona, NC State, West Virginia and Duke.  The only thing not to like about the Terriers this season are the two games against banks (Ohio Valley and Florida National).  Are these really four-year institutions?

2.      How will VMI’s style of play affect the league?

If you haven’t seen VMI play lately, you’re in for a real treat.  The Keydets are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation.  Make no mistake, Duggar Baucom knows how to coach and gets the Keydets to play at an unbelievable pace.   In fact, they ranked number one nationally in scoring last season.  In a Thursday – Saturday league it will be very interesting to see how teams prepare with one day prep.  It will also be interesting to see how teams they have played on Thursday react in their Saturday games.  Will they have the necessary energy with less than 48 hours rest?

3.      What new member will have the most success?

ETSU.  Murry Bartow has one Southern Conference Tournament Championship (2004) and re-enters 10 years later with another very talented club.  While VMI will make some noise and Mercer is a rock-solid program, I believe it will be the Bucs that will assert themselves as a major player once we get to conference play in January.  Remember the name – Rashawn Rembert – he has the talent to battle for Player-of-the-Year honors in his only season in the SoCon.

4.      Who is the sleeper?

This is always a difficult question during a pre-season preview.  There are several choices, but I’m going with Western Carolina.  The Catamounts lost a ton of talent, including All-SoCon guard Trey Sumler, but it would be unwise to bet against a Larry Hunter-coached team.  The veteran head coach of 34 years is the tenth winningest active coach in college basketball and gets as much out of his players as anyone.  James Sinclair will be the leader for the Catamounts this year and Kenneth Hall will be counted on for experience, but the key for Western may well ride on the development of the junior class (Mike Brown, Rhett Harrelson, Torrion Brummitt and Justin Browning).  With the loss of Sumler, Tawaski King, Brandon Boggs and Tom Tankelewicz, these guys must make a big jump.

5.      Can the league get some quality wins in the non-conference?

Last season, the SoCon simply could not get the quality non-conference wins needed to elevate the conference RPI and thus it was determined to be a one-bid league before January 1.  This season, every program has reduced the number of non-Division I games it will be playing and I’m of the opinion this is a very good thing.  Yes, each program wants home games and having one or two non D-I opponents (that you don’t have to return the game) helps, but these simply don’t help the image (or RPI) of the league.  Sure, perception is everything in recruiting, therefore I know coaches struggle with accumulating wins vs. having a “good, solid” schedule, but beating opponents from peer conferences is the key.

Across the board, I like what each program has done creating a nice balance of power conference games along with contests against peer conferences.  The key is to:  1) Take care of home – regardless of who you play.  2) Pull a few surprises on the road or at an exempt tournament at a neutral site.  3) Most importantly, win the 50-50 games against those teams from the CAA, MAAC, Horizon, Big South and Ohio Valley Conferences.

Share this on twitter!  Next week I will close the series with “Best Bets.”

 

-Dean Keener