Note: The following is Part II of a three-part series previewing Southern Conference men’s basketball for 2013-14. The season preview was prepared by Dean Keener, who provides commentary on Southern Conference men’s basketball broadcasts. Keener played collegiately at Davidson before embarking on a successful coaching career. He served as head coach at James Madison from 2004-08.
Keener and play-by-play announcer Darren Goldwater open the season on Nov. 11 when Davidson hosts Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a game that can be seen on ESPN3.
Pre-Season Power Rankings &
Five Questions That Need to be Answered
There is no shortage of questions regarding the Southern Conference, both on and off the court. As previously discussed, this season should be as wide open as any in recent memory. Even though Elon and Davidson are considered the favorites by many who follow the league, I firmly believe there are five or six teams that have a legitimate chance to win the league title. Western Carolina is loaded with experience, Appalachian State looks to build on some real momentum from last March, Samford has good, young talent and Chattanooga may just have enough in Will Wade’s first season to cause some real “Chaos.” And you can’t ever count out Wofford.
Also, we must be reminded that this is the final season for Appalachian State, Davidson, Elon and Georgia Southern in the Southern Conference, but that won’t stop all of them from competing for a conference title. It’s also the first season for three rookie coaches. All of these dynamics should help create tons of excitement for the players, coaches and fans across the league.
Again, plenty of questions abound, but hopefully I can answer a few to help you get ready for what should be a wildly entertaining season. Here’s the skinny on how I handicap the 2013-2014 season:
Pre-Season Power Rankings
1) Elon
The Phoenix arrived right on time last year and now look to make the next move in their swan song in the Southern Conference. They return just about everyone of significance, therefore managing expectations will be a huge key early for Elon. I love the character and chemistry on this team as much as anyone, but there’s no hiding the fact that this is the year everyone around the Phoenix program has been waiting for with high hopes. Because of that, Matt Matheny will need to coach the players’ minds as much as their bodies in order to keep them focused - and loose - throughout the long season.
Clearly, Elon has lots of weapons. Lucas Troutman is a skilled big man. His partner in the post, Ryley Beaumont, is an enforcer with a very high motor. Jack Isenbarger is a terrific shooter and the heart and soul of the team. Sebastian Koch, a career 39.5% 3-point shooter, is one of the leagues’ best marksmen. If Austin Hamilton can come back from last season’s knee injury and handle the point, this will be a tough team to defend. On top of that, they have a very solid bench.
Make no mistake, youth and talent are nice, but experienced talent is where great opportunities are available and this season the Phoenix have it. This is the year they have been aiming toward and therefore Matt Matheny needs to push all his chips to the center of the table. With a schedule that includes Duke, Georgetown, Colorado, and UMass as well a spot in the NIT Tip-Off (yes, they have a chance at MSG); he may have already done it.
2) Davidson
Some things never change. It’s a new season yet with the same storyline. At Davidson, there has been sustained excellence by Bob McKillop, who is one of the nation’s premier coaches. Entering his 25th season at the helm of the Wildcats, his players are devoted to him and his system. His teams are solidly constructed with talent and therefore are generally immune to much volatility and this year should not be any different.
The good news? De’Mon Brooks is back. The bad news? Jake Cohen, JP Kuhlman, Nik Cochran and Clint Mann have all graduated. Last year’s seniors formed one of the most successful runs in school history going 51-16 the past 2 years. That group also combined for 4,879 career points. Still, there is plenty of talent in the Wildcats camp. Chris Czerapowicz is healthy and should be primed for a terrific senior season. Senior guard Tom Droney is Mr. Consistent at both ends of the floor. Tyler Kalinoski is a terrific perimeter shooter with lots of big game experience and Jordan Barham is an athletic guard who showed positive signs last year as a freshman, but was limited in his minutes due to an experienced roster. With increased minutes, Barham could have an eye-opening season.
The newcomers to watch are Miami (Ohio) transfer Brian Sullivan and Jake Gibbs. Sullivan is a lights out shooter who was on the Mid-American Conference All-freshman team two years ago. He shot 44.9% from 3, which led the MAC and was 8th nationally. Gibbs is a freshman from Westerville, Ohio who could be the next special guard for Bob McKillop.
Make no mistake, the Wildcats will be a tough out for anyone and everyone in the league and someone will have to fight them to capture the title.
3) Western Carolina
Larry Hunter continues to crank out competitive teams in Cullowhee. This season the Catamounts have the most experienced team in the league. Hunter will have his top five leading scorers from 2012-13 returning in Trey Sumler (18.4 ppg), Tawaski King (11.0 ppg), Brandon Boggs (10.3 ppg), Tom Tankelewicz (9.7 ppg) and James Sinclair (7.4 ppg). King returns as the leading rebounder at 6.3 per game.
On paper, the Catamounts possess maturity, experience, a diverse roster and depth – all ingredients for success. Sumler is one of the most productive offensive players in the Southern Conference and is a legitimate Player-of-the-Year candidate. King is a load in the low post. Brandon Boggs is a versatile wing who can play several positions and Tom Tankelewicz can really stretch the defense with his 3-point shooting. Sophomore guard Mike Brown is someone that might not start, but will be a valuable rotation player.
Finally, it’s important to remember the Catamounts are always a tough out at home. Their record at the Ramsey Center under Hunter is impressive. They have won 54 of their last 69 home games dating back to the end of the 2007-08 season. This includes 36 of the last 48 SoCon games in Cullowhee during the same stretch. Overall, Western Carolina is a sterling 75-30 (.714) at the Ramsey Center in eight seasons with Hunter in charge.
This is a dangerous team that has a chance to be right there at the end come tourney time in Asheville. And if we know anything about the Catamounts and the Ashville Civic Center, it’s that we don’t count them out in that arena.
4) Appalachian State
Jason Capel’s group ended their season with a blistering performance against Davidson in the SoCon tournament semifinals, but it wasn’t quite enough. With that said, they hope to build on that confidence this season. The Mountaineers won seven of their last 11 games due in part to several factors: 1) Mike Neal was in control at the point guard slot 2) a reduction in turnovers 3) improved FG%.
With all the positives surrounding the program, the loss of Nathan Healy cannot be brushed aside. He was the emotional leader on and off the court for the Mountaineers and at times, he simply willed his team to victory. Healy was one of the better student-athlete stories in college basketball last year and will be missed in Boone.
Still, this team has some real offensive pop. Returning starters Mike Neal, Tab Hamilton and Jay Canty can all score the ball and Michael Obacha proved as a freshman that he is a low post threat. This group is experienced and very capable. Additionally, “super sub” Tevin Baskin averaged almost 10ppg last year, but that may not be the right title for him this season as he will be called on to play a bigger role in 2013-‘14.
The question is, can the Mountaineers defend well enough to compete for a championship? If they decide to dedicate themselves at the defensive end – and take care of the details, watch out for this talented group.
5) Chattanooga
There’s a new sheriff in Chattanooga and he has some talented players to build around. Will Wade’s style of play will attempt to put constant pressure on opponents and although the Mocs will be undersized upfront, I would expect them to be very aggressive in their full-court pressure and matchup defense.
Z Mason is physically very imposing. He’s an undersized post but plays with huge heart and should be one of the better players in the Southern Conference this season. He is the leading returning rebounder in the SoCon and will battle for that title again this year.
In any other year, Gee McGhee could have been the freshman of the year last season. The 6’1” guard from Baton Rouge, LA averaged 12.1 ppg. He has a real knack at getting to the free throw line, but left a lot of points there shooting just 61% from the line last year so he needs to improve in the area. Ronrico White will team with McGhee to form a solid backcourt that will challenge defenses. Others, including guard Casey Jones and versatile forward Lance Stokes, will be counted on to be solid in their roles as well.
Will Wade comes from VCU where he helped Shaka Smart put together a wonderful system that was ultra successful. He will attempt to do the same at Chattanooga and may very well be able to make some serious noise in year one.
6) Samford
The Bulldogs very much look like a program on the rise. Can they make a move in the Southern Conference this year or are they still a year away? That is the question second year coach Bennie Seltzer will attempt to solve. If nothing else, it will be interesting to watch the Bulldogs again in men’s hoops.
While reigning freshman of the year Tim Williams is a budding star in mid-major basketball, he is far from the only “player” on the Bulldogs roster. Junior Raijon Kelly is a talented point guard who can score as well as distribute the ball. Tyler Hood is a sneaky good athlete who can really shoot it and Connor Miller, who logged a ton of minutes as a sophomore last year, is also a deadly long range shooter.
The staff hauled in an impressive recruiting class that took care of several needs. In particular, 6’10” junior college transfer Michael Bradley (Chattanooga, Tenn.) adds some much needed size upfront. Jordan Capps (Suwanee, Ga.) and Isiah Williams (Buford, Ga.) are also two freshmen to watch.
In some ways, this is a difficult team to predict as Samford has a really nice core. If Tim Williams plays stronger, continues to expand his game and the juniors (Bradley, Brandon Hayman, Hood, Kelly and Miller) play like veterans, then the Bulldogs will be a tough out. If not, it will be another up and down season in Birmingham.
7) Wofford
Don’t sleep on the Terriers. Mike Young is simply too good at what he does, especially at Wofford where he’s been for the past 25 years, including the last 11 as head coach. Wofford is one of the most successful programs in the SoCon the past five years and while they slipped to 13-19 last season, it is my belief that they will be in the mix again this year.
Karl Cochran can score in bunches. The athletic junior from Marietta, Georgia simply needs to make sure he is taking good shots. Too many times last year, he forced shots that caught his teammates off guard thus allowing breakouts by opponents. Backcourt mates Spencer Collins and Indiana Faithful have the ability to compete on a nightly basis in league play. Upfront, Lee Skinner is experienced and tough at one forward position. In fact, he should be one of the better forwards in the league. Senior Aerris Smith along with sophomores CJ Neumann and Justin Gordon will battle for time at the other forward slot.
Developing a solid bench could be the key to the Terriers success this season. This is where freshmen guards Jaylen Allen (Johnson City, Tenn.) and Eric Garcia (Aurora, Colo.) come in. They are ready to contribute and will be counted on to add depth to the Terriers rotation.
8) UNCG
As it has been lately, success could come down to how the Spartans manage the 50-50, coin-flip type ballgames. The Spartans were a selfish team at times last year. Trevis Simpson was a high-flying talent but took way too many ill-advised shots that left his teammates out of rebounding position and wondering if they would get the ball at the right time.
The new-look Spartans will feature seven newcomers (six freshmen and one junior college transfer) as well as three players who redshirted last season. In fact, UNCG returns only five letter winners from last year's team. Leading the way among the newcomers is junior forward Kyle Cain, a 6’8” transfer from Arizona State. Cain is a load inside and will be tough to handle for opposing post players.
Sophomore forward Kayel Locke is the Spartans' top returning scorer from last year as he averaged 9.9 points per game while grabbing 4.4 rebounds per game as a true freshman. He knows how to get to the free throw line and should pair with Cain up front. Junior Nicholas Paulos was second on the team last year with 63 three-pointers. You may remember that he set a UNCG single-game record last season with 10 three-pointers off the bench in just 21 minutes of action against UTC.
As for the freshmen, look for guards Tevon Saddler (Baltimore, MD), Clay Byrd (Connelly Springs, NC) and forward Tyrone Outlaw (Roxboro, NC) to make an immediate impact.
The Spartans took a 10-day trip to Spain in August to help shorten the learning curve with regards to chemistry. The results were very positive and suggest that Wes Miller may have solved many of his problems from a year ago.
Certainly the Spartans lost lots of fire power, but they have replaced it with lots of “potential” firepower. It will be interesting to watch how Miller molds this team over the course of the season. They have another challenging non-conference schedule with four ACC opponents as well as Rutgers and East Carolina, therefore I caution fans to reserve judgment until this team hits late January.
9) Georgia Southern
Mark Byington inherited the most talented, yet most enigmatic player in the league in Eric Ferguson. Unfortunately, Byington and staff will not have the services of Ferguson this season as he is taking a medical red-shirt due to knee surgery in April. There are some other talented players on the Eagles roster, but the whole will have to be greater than the sum of its parts in order for them to see much success.
The Eagles strength will be in the backcourt where Jelani Hewitt returns to join Tre` Bussey and Brian Holmes. Hewitt averaged 10.5 ppg during the 2011-2012 season and will be counted on to be a leader for the Eagles this year. In the frontcourt, Marvin Baynham, Kameron Dunnican and Sam Mike will need to elevate their games in order to keep Georgia Southern competitive. Newcomers Curtis Diamond (Lithonia, GA / Tallahassee CC), Kyle Doyle (Hephizibah, GA) and Angel Matias (San Juan, Puerto Rico) all have the potential to help the Eagles.
Without Eric Ferguson, this is by far the most difficult team to predict. There are simply too many unknowns, including a new staff, a new style of play, a limited offensive presence inside and the lack of proven “go-to” player. The Eagles would be well served to win the games they are “supposed to” in order to gain forward momentum for the future.
10) Furman
There’s a new coach in Greenville, but he’s not new to Furman. Niko Medved returns after a successful run as an assistant at Colorado State. SoCon fans will remember Medved as Larry Davis’ right-hand man from 2000-2006 when the Paladins enjoyed some real success registering winning seasons in each of Medved’s last three years in Greenville and four of the final five seasons. He also helped the Paladins reach their first Southern Conference championship game in over 20 years in 2002.
The backcourt will be the strength of the Paladins this season. In fact, if everyone stays healthy, they could have one of the deepest perimeter groups in the Southern Conference. Stephen Croone is a cat-quick point guard that can get baseline to baseline as fast as any player in the league. Jordan Loyd red-shirted last year and continues to battle injuries, but very well could push Croone for minutes if he is healthy. Fifth-year senior Charlie Reddick is a capable double figure scorer and Dominic Early and Larry Wideman are as athletic as any wings in the league. Will Gates, Jr. (Schertz, Texas) is a newcomer that could find time within this unit. All in all, this is a potentially dangerous group that simply needs to find a help up front. Kendrec Ferrara is their best option and will need to have a breakout sophomore season. No doubt, Furman’s season will be decided by its frontcourt.
To the untrained eye it would be easy to write off the Paladins, but there is some good talent for new skipper Niko Medved to work with this year. They are deep on the perimeter, but simply don’t possess much height. Therefore, Furman should make some progress, but they might not necessarily see it in the win column. The first order of business for Medved and his staff is to teach their style of play and get the players to “buy in.” The wins will follow.
11) The Citadel
Working in arguably the most difficult job in Division I, Chuck Driesell has worked hard to recruit talent to The Citadel. Losing isn’t easy and it can become difficult to work your way out of it. That said, I believe Driesell and staff have put in place a foundation that will soon begin to pay dividends.
The Bulldogs will rely heavily on a couple of juniors on the perimeter. Guards Marshall Harris III and Ashton Moore are solid in the backcourt. In fact, Harris led the SoCon in assists at 5.2 per game last year. Moore has a chance to become a reliable scorer after shooting 36.6% from 3 last season.
Unfortunately, junior forward P.J. Horgan, who was a career 56 percent field goal shooter, had his career officially ended due to back problems. Horgan would have been a solid front court player for the Bulldogs. This now puts pressure on redshirt sophomores Dylen Setzekorn and C.J. Bray as well as a trio of freshmen: Brian White (Richmond, Va.), Tom Koopman (Weert, Holland) and Nate Bowser (Ft. Worth, Texas) to help provide some presence inside. This is a team void of seniors.
But the cornerstone of this team is 6’6” sophomore Matt Van Scyoc. The sophomore from Wisconsin is a special player and a gifted wing that can cause matchup problems for opponents. He was a member of the All-freshman team last season and looks to build on a terrific first year in Charleston. No doubt he will garner lots of attention this season, but word is he has expended his game and has rounded out his game at the offensive end which is a real positive for the Bulldogs.
I actually don’t believe The Citadel is the 11th place team in the league. Their coaching and talent base suggest much higher, but until they prove it they will be slotted here.
Five Questions That Need To Be Answered
1. Can Davidson go out a winner?
Nothing is a given, especially in a league that should have a decent amount of competitive depth, but along with Elon, Davidson appears to be a notch above anyone else in the conference. Even though the Wildcats lost a whopping 4,879 points to graduation, they simply have too much experience, depth and talent up and down the roster not to be considered among the pre-season favorites. That along with a great staff and a home court where they are 120-18 over the past 10 seasons suggests they have a lot going for them.
It won’t be as easy for the Wildcats this year, but they’re still one of my favorites to reach the Southern Conference tournament finals in March.
2. Is Samford prepared to make a move into the top of the standings?
The Bulldogs are primed to be a player in the Southern Conference. Coach Bennie Seltzer spent much of last year getting his players to comprehend a new system. This year, they should better understand what’s expected at both ends of the floor.
Raijon Kelly, Tyler Hood and Tim Williams are each former SoCon All-Freshmen team members. Others like Connor Miller, Russell Wilson and Brandon Hayman help form a very solid nucleus.
There is talent in Birmingham and the future is bright, but if the Bulldogs want to move into the upper tier of the Southern Conference they must now learn how to defend AND win on the road. Last season they were just 4-15 away from the friendly confines of the Pete Hanna Center. If they can learn to do those two things better they could very well be one of the nice surprises in college basketball this year.
3. What new coach will have the most success?
Will Wade at Chattanooga.
At Furman, Niko Medved simply does not have enough talent in the post to make much noise. I really like the Paladins backcourt, but overall I’m not sure there is enough talent to climb into the top tier of the conference. Coach Medved understands the culture at Furman and more importantly what it takes to win on the basketball court, but this will be a season of laying the foundation for future years for the Paladins.
Mark Byington was a great choice for Georgia Southern. He has some talent to work with, but without the services of Eric Ferguson this year (knee), the Eagles will be limited over the course of a full season. Byington and staff will need everything to fall right in order to stay in the mix.
Chattanooga does possess some real firepower and for that reason could really surprise this year. Chemistry as well as adapting to a new system will be the key for the Mocs. No doubt, this is usually the case when a coaching change is made, but it will be critical to the Mocs success as Will Wade brings a new style of play to UTC. If they learn to play fast – and create “Chaos” – the Mocs could very well find themselves in the top tier of the league come March.
4. Who is the sleeper?
This is always a good question during a pre-season preview. There are several choices here, but I’m going with Wofford. You simply do not want to underestimate a Mike Young-coached team.
I think the Terriers have enough talent to make some serious noise come conference play. Karl Cochran, Lee Skinner, Spencer Collins and Aerris Smith can compete with anyone in the league. If Indiana Faithful can be steady at manning the point guard slot, the Terriers will be a tough out, especially in Benjamin Johnson Arena.
I have the Terriers pre-season #7, which is probably way too low for this group. I’m sure I’ll hear from their fans come tournament time.
5. Once Appalachian State, Davidson, Elon and Georgia Southern are gone, then what?
No worries, the SoCon adds Mercer as well as former Southern Conference members East Tennessee State and VMI. There may not be one “singular” bell cow for the league as it adapts to the new landscape, but there will be strength in numbers. Hey, remember that Mercer won the Atlantic-Sun Conference regular season title last year, not Cinderella Florida Gulf Coast!
Kudos to Commissioner John Iamarino as the league kept its geographic footprint while bringing in some outstanding new members. The league should get plenty of exposure in men’s basketball moving forward.
Next week I will close the series with “Best Bets.” I will give my predications for all-conference performers and more.